ORCID NUMBER orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-4915

Peer reviewed publications
  
  1. Lewis, S.C., King, A.D., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2019. Approaches to attribution of extreme temperature and precipitiation events using multi-model and single-member ensembles of GCMs. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Oceanography and Meteorology, accepted 1/7/2019.
  2. Stone, D.A., Christidis, N., Folland, C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Perlwitz, J., Shiogama, H., Wehner, M.F., Wolski, P., Cholia,S., Murray, D., Angelil, O., Beyerle, U., Ciavarella, A., Dittus, A., Quan, X.-W.,  and Tadross, M., 2019. Experiment Design of the International CLIVAR 20C+ detection and attribution project. Weather and Climate Extremes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100206
  3. ​Lewis, S.C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E, Althor, G., King, A.D., and Kemp, L., 2019. Assessing contributions of major emitters' Paris-era decision to future temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081608
  4. Beranger, B., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Sisson, S.A., 2019. Tail density estimation for exploratory data analysis using kernel methods. Journal of nonparametric statistics, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10485252.2018.1537442
  5. Smale, D., Wernberg, T., Oliver, E., Thomsen, M., Harvey, B., Straub, S., Burrows,  M., Alexander, L., Benthuysen, J., Donat, M., Feng, M., Hobday, A., Holbrook, N., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Scannell, H., Sen Gupta, A., Payne, B., and Moore, P., 2019:  Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services, Nature Climate Change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0412-1
  6. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E.,  King, A.D., Cougnon, E.A., Grose, M.R., Oliver, E.C.J., Holbrook, N.J., Lewis, S.C., and Pourasghar, F., 2019. The 2017/2018 Tasman Sea Marine Heatwave could not have occurred without human influence. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0116.1
  7. Harrington, L.J., Lewis, S., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Otto, F.E.L., and King, A.D., 2018. Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of reoccurrence in a warming world.  Environmental Research Letters, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2dc/pdf
  8. Loughran, T., Pitman, A.J. and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2018. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation's Effect on Summer Heatwave Development Mechanisms in Australia. Climate Dynamics, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4511-x
  9. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Pitman, A.J., 2018. Extreme events in the context of climate change. Public Health Research & Practice, ​accepted, 18/5/2018 {invited paper} 
  10. Harris, R.M.B, Beaumont, L.J., Vance, T., Tozer,C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Mitchell, P.J., Andrew, N.R., Nicotra, A.B., Fletcher, M.-S., Keatley, M.R., Chambers, L.E., Wernberg, T., McGregor, S., Woodward, C.A., Hutley, L.B., Williamson, G., Duke, N.C. and Bowman D.M.J.S, 2018: Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events. Nature Climate Change, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0187-9
  11. Oliver, E.C.J., Donat, M.G., Burrows, M.T., Moore, P.J., Smale, D.A., Alexander, L.V., Benthuysen, J.A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Scannell, H.A., Straub, S.C, and Wernberg, T., 2018. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications, ​9, 1324
  12. Oliver, E. C. J., S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, N. J. Holbrook and N. L. Bindoff 2018. Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heatwaves [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(12), S44–S48
  13. Angelil, O., D. Stone, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L. Alexander, M. Wehner, H. Shiogama, P. Wolski, A. Ciavarella, N. Christidis, 2018. On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements. Climate Dynamics, 50, 2739-2752 
  14. Rauser, F., Alqadi, M., Arowolo, S., Baker, N., Bedard, J., Behrens, E., Domingues, L., Frassoni, A., Keller, J., Kirkpatrick, S., Langendijk, G., Mirsafa, M.,  Mohammand, S., Naumann, A., Osman, M., Reed, K., Rothmuller, M., Schemann, V., Singh A., Sonntag, S., Tummon, F.,  Victor, D., Villafuerte, M., Walawender, J., and Zaroug, M., 2017. Earth System Science Frontiers, An early career perspective.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 119-1127 
  15. Schlegel, R.W., Oliver, E.C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Kruger, A., and Smit, A.J., 2017. Predominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns during coastal marine heatwaves. Frontiers in marine science, 12 
  16. Gibson, P.B., Pitman, A.J., Lorenz, R., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2017.  The role of circulation and land surface conditions in current and future Australian heatwaves. Journal of Climate, ​30, 9933-9948.
  17. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Gibson, P.B., 2017: Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature. Scientific Reports, 7, 12256
  18. Oliver, E.C.J.,  J.A. Benthuysen, N.L. Bindoff, A.J. Hobday, N.J. Holbrook, C.N. Mundy and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2017. The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, 8, 16101 
  19. Loughran, T., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Pitman, A.J., 2017: No Significant Difference Between Australian Heatwave Impacts of Modoki and Eastern Pacific El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, ​44, 5150-5157 
  20. Gibson, P.B., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E., Uotila, P., Pepler, A., and Alexander, L.A., 2017: On the use of self-organizing maps for studying climate extremes.  Journal of Geophysical Research,​ 122, 3891-3903 
  21. Gibson, P.B., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L.A. and Fischer, E.M, 2016: Comparing Australian heatwaves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, 3266-3281 
  22. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Fischer, E.M., and Angelil, O., 2017: The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends. Environmental Research Letters, 044005 
  23. Loughran, T., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Alexander, L.V., 2017. Understanding the Spatio-temporal Influence of Climate Variability on Australian Heatwaves.  International Journal of climatology, 37, 4963-3975
  24. Marotzke, J., C. Jakob, S. Bony, P.A. Dirmeyer, P. O'Gorman, E. Hawkins, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, C. Le Quere, S. Nowicki, K. Paulavets, S.I. Seneviratne, B. Stevens, and M. Tuma, 2017. Climate research must sharpen its view. Nature Climate Change, 7, 89-91
  25. White, C.J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A.W., Klein, R., Lazo, J.K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., Coughlan, E., Ray, A.J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A.P., Eggen, B., Graham., R., Kjellstrom, E., Backer, R., Pegion, K.V., Holbrook, N.J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T.J., Street, R., Remenyi, T.A., Hodgson-Johnson, I. and Buontempo, C., 2017: Applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications, ​24, 315-325 
  26.  Lewis, S.C., King, A.D., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2017: Defining a new normal for temperature extremes in a warming world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 1139-1151
  27. Sewell T., R. Stephens, D. Dominey-Howes, E, Bruce and S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Natural disaster declarations in New South Wales, Australia between 2004 and 2014. Nature Scientific Reports, 6, 36369
  28. Loridan, T., Coates, L., Argueso, D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and McAneney, J., 2016: The Excess Heat Factor as a metric for heat related fatalities: defining heatwave risk categories. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 31, 31-37 
  29. ​Angelil, O., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Stone, D., Donat, D., Wehner, M.,Shiogama, H., Ciavarella., A, and Christidis, N., 2016.  Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products. Weather and Climate Extremes, 13, 35-43 
  30. Argüeso, D., Di Luca, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Evans, J.P., 2016: Mean temperatures more important than variability for future heat waves. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 7653-7660 
  31. Kala, J., M.G. De Kauwe, A.J. Pitman, B.E. Medlyn, Y.-P., Wang, R. Lorenz, and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Are climate models underestimating future heatwave intensity due to their representation for stomatal conductance?  Nature Scientific Reports, 6 
  32. Gibson, P.B., P. Utolia, S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L.V. Alexander and A.J. Pitman, 2016: Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region. Climate Dynamics, 47, 2235-2251 
  33. King, A., M. Black, S.-K. Min, E. Fischer, D. Mitchell, L. Harrington, and  S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 3438-3343 
  34. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., C.J.White, L.V. Alexander, D. Argüeso, G. Boschat, T. Cowan, J.P. Evans, M. Ekström, E.C.J. Oliver, A. Phatak, and A. Purich, 2016: Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Climatic Change, Australian Natural Hazards Special Issue, 139 101-114 {invited paper}
  35. Gibson, P.B., S.E. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E. and J.A. Renwick, 2016: Projected changes in synoptic weather patterns over New Zealand examined through self‐organizing maps. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 3934-3948 
  36. Hobday, A.J., L.V. Alexander, S.E. Perkins, D.A. Smale, S.C. Straub, E.C. Oliver, J. Benthuysen, M.T. Burrows, M.G. Donat, M. Feng, and  N.J.Holbrook, 2016: A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Progress in Oceanography, 141, 227-238 
  37. Perkins, S.E., D. Argueso and C.J. White, 2015: Relationships between climate variability, soil moisture and Australian heatwaves.  Journal of Geophysical Research, 8144-8164
  38. Perkins, S.E. and P.B. Gibson, 2015: Increased risk of the 2014 Australian May heatwave due to anthropogenic activity.  “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (12), S154-S157 
  39. Perkins, S.E., 2015: A review on the scientific understanding of heatwaves – their measurement, driving mechanisms, and changes at the global scale. Journal of Atmospheric Research, 164, 242-267 {invited paper} 
  40. King, A.D., M.G. Donat, E.M. Fischer, E. Hawkins, L.V. Alexander, D.J. Karoly, A. Dittus, S.C. Lewis and S.E. Perkins, 2015: The timing of anthropogenic emergence in climate extremes, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 094015 
  41. Boschat, G., A. Pezza, I. Simmonds, S. Perkins, T. Cowan and A. Purich, 2015: Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia, Climate Dynamics, 44, 1823-1840.
  42. Purich, A., Cowan, T., Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Uotila, P., Pezza, A.,  Boschat, G., & Perkins, S., 2014: Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian Heat Waves: a CMIP5 analysis. Journal of Climate, 27, 7807-7829 
  43. Perkins, S.E., S.C. Lewis, A. D. King and L. V. Alexander, 2014: Anthropogenic activity increased risk in Australian heatwave frequency and intensity during 2012-2013, [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9), s34-s37 
  44. Cowan, T., A. Purich, S. Perkins, A. Pezza, G. Boschat and K. Sadler, 2014: More frequent, longer and hotter heat waves for Australia in the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 27, 5851-5871
  45. Moles, A., S. Perkins, S. Laffan, M. Awasthy, M. Tindall, M. Sack, M. Lawren. H. Flores Moreno, A. Pitman, J. Kattge, L. Aarssen, M. Anand, M, Bahn, B. Blonder, J. Cavender-Bares, H. Cornelissen, W. Cornwell, S. Díaz, S., J. Dickie, G. Freschet, J. Griffiths, A. Gutierrez, F. Hemmings, T. Hickler, T. Hitchcock and M. Keighery, 2014: "Which is a better predictor of plant traits: temperature or precipitation?" Journal of Vegetation Science, 25, 1167-1180\
  46. Perkins, S.E., A.F. Moise, J.  Katzfey and P. Whetton, 2014: Regional Changes of Climate Extremes over Australia ­ a Comparison of RCM and GCM Simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 3456-3478 
  47. King, A.D., S.C. Lewis, S.E. Perkins, L.V. Alexander, M.G. Donat, D.J. Karoly, and M.T. Black, 2013: Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-2012 extreme rainfall over South-East Australia. [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9), S6–S9 
  48. Perkins, S.E. and E.M. Fischer, 2013: The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5793-5797
  49. Perkins, S.E. and L.V. Alexander, 2013: On the Measurement of Heat Waves. Journal of Climate, 26, pp. 4500-4517
  50. Alexander, L.V. and S.E. Perkins, 2013: Debate heating up over changes in climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 041001
  51. Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman and S.A. Sisson, 2013: Systematic differences in future 20-year temperature extremes in AR4 model projections over Australia as a function of model skill. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 1153-1167 
  52. Perkins, S.E., L.V. Alexander and J.R. Nairn, 2012: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L20714
  53. Perkins, S.E., D.B. Irving, J.R. Brown, S.B. Power, A.F. Moise, R.A. Colman and I. Smith, 2012: CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill. Climate Research, 51, 35-58 
  54. Beaumont, L.J., A. Pitman, S. Perkins, N.E. Zimmerman, N. G. Yoccoz, 2011: Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 108, 2306-2311
  55. Irving, D.B., S.E. Perkins, J.R. Brown, A. Sen Gupta, A.F. Moise, B.F. Murphy, L.C. Muir, R.A. Colman, S.B. Power, F.P Delage and J.N. Brown, 2011:  Evaluating global climate models for climate change projections in the Pacific island region. Climate Research, 49, 169-187 [54].
  56. Perkins, S.E., 2011:  Biases and model agreement in projections of climate extremes over the tropical Pacific. Earth Interactions, 15, 1-36 
  57. Perkins, S. E. and A.J. Pitman, 2009: Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia? Climatic Change, 93, 527-558 
  58. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman and S. A. Sisson, 2009: Smaller projected increases in 20-year temperature returns over Australia in skill-selected climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06710
  59. Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2009: Comparison of daily 2m and 1000 hPa maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and latent heat flux in the global re-analysis. Journal of Climate, 22, 4667-4681 
  60. Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2008: Regional projections of future seasonal and annual changes in rainfall and temperature over Australia based on skill-selected AR4 models. Earth Interactions, 12, 1-50 
  61. Maxino, C.C, B.,J McAvaney, A.J.Pitman and S.E. Perkins, 2008: Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray-Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, International Journal of Climatology, 28, 1097-1112 
  62. Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook and J. McAneney, 2007: Evaluation of the AR4 climate models’ simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. Journal of Climate, 20, 4356-4756
  63. Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook and J. McAneney, 2007: Ability of global climate models at a regional scale over Australia. Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 7, 275-287
  64. Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2007: Reducing uncertainty in selecting climate models for hydrological impact assessments, in Boegh, E., Kunstmann, H., Wagener, T., Hall, A., Bastidas, L., Franks, S., Gupta,  H., Rosbjerg, D. And Schaake, J., Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resource management, IAHS Publication 313, IAHS Press 

Reports and book chapters
 
 S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, R.J.H.Dunn, and M.G. Donat, 2018, Global Climate - land surface temperature extremes [in “State of the Climate in 2017”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., accepted, 20/6/2018
 
R.J.H.Dunn, S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick and M.G. Donat, 2017, Global Climate - land surface temperature extremes [in “State of the Climate in 2016”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98 (8), S14–S115
 
M.G.Donat, R.J.H.Dunn and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick., 2016, [Global climate] Temperature extreme indices [in “State of the Climate in 2015”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , 97, (8), S19–S20

Lewis, S.C., Karoly, D.J., King, A.D., Perkins, S.E. and Donat, M.G., 2017. “Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate Extremes”, In: Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms, pp.249-263. John Wiley & Sons, 400pp.

Brown, J.R.; Colman, R.A.; Katzfey , J.; Irving, D.B.; Perkins, S.E.; Sen Gupta, A., 2011: Climate model reliability. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].

Hennessy, K.; Irving, D.B.; Perkins, S.E.; Murphy, B.F.; Sen Gupta, A.; Church, J.; Tilbrook, B., 2011: Projections based on Global Climate Models. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].

Katzfey, J.; Kokic, P.; Perkins, S.E.; Abbs, D, 2011: Climate Change Projections Based on downscaling. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].
     
Rischbieth J, et al., 2011: Climate Change in the PaHcific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 2: Country Reports).

Steffen, W. L. Hughes and S. Perkins, 2014: Heatwaves - Longer, Hotter, More Often. Published by the Climate Council.


Submitted publications

Lewis, S.C., Blake, S.A.P., Trewin, B., Black, M.T., Dowdy, A.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., King, A.D., and Sharples, J.J., 2019. Deconstructing factors contributing to the abnormal November 2018 fires in Queensland Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society, submitted.

Lewis, S.C., King, A.D., Mitchell, D., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2019. Regional hotspots of temperature extremes under 1.5°C and 2°C of global mean warming. Weather and Climate Extremes, submitted.

Stone, D.A., Angelil, O., Beyerle, U.,  Ciavarella, A., Folland, C.K., Quan, X.-W., Shiogama, H.,  Dittus, A., Tadross M., Wehner, M., Murray D.,  Krishnan, H., Perlwitz, J.,  Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.,  Christidis, N., Cholia, S., Wolski, P., 2019. Experiment design of the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project. Weather and Climate Extremes, in review.

Hirsch, A.L., Evans, J.P., Di Virgillio, G.,  Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Argueso, D., Pitman, A.J., Carouge, C., Kala., J., Andrys, J., Petrelli, P., and Rockel, B., 2019.  Amplification of Australian via local land-atmosphere coupling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, submitted.

King, A.D., Henley, B.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., van Oldenborgh, G.J., McGregor, H.V., DeCarlo, D.V., Karoly, D.J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Lough, J., 2018.  Recent Great Barrier Reef coral bleaching events in a climate perspective. Nature Climate Change, under review.

Lewis, S.C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and King, A.D., 2018. Attribution of Australian extreme temperature and precipitation events using CMIP5 and other ensembles of GCMs. Weather and Climate Extremes,  submitted.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Lewis, S.C., 2018. A Comprehensive assessment of observed heatwave trends. Nature Communications, under review.