ORCID NUMBER orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-4915

Peer reviewed publications
  
  1. Harris, R.M.B, Beaumont, L.J., Vance, T., Tozer,C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Mitchell, P.J., Andrew, N.R., Nicotra, A.B., Fletcher, M.-S., Keatley, M.R., Chambers, L.E., Wernberg, T., McGregor, S., Woodward, C.A., Hutley, L.B., Williamson, G., Duke, N.C. and Bowman D.M.J.S, 2017: The certainty of unpredictability: Climate change, extreme events and biodiversity impacts. Nature Climate Change, ​accepted 10/5/2018
  2. Oliver, E.C.J., Donat, M.G., Burrows, M.T., Moore, P.J., Smale, D.A., Alexander, L.V., Benthuysen, J.A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Scannell, H.A., Straub, S.C, and Wernberg, T., 2018. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century. Nature Communications, ​9, 1324. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03732-9
  3. Rauser, F., Alqadi, M., Arowolo, S., Baker, N., Bedard, J., Behrens, E., Domingues, L., Frassoni, A., Keller, J., Kirkpatrick, S., Langendijk, G., Mirsafa, M.,  Mohammand, S., Naumann, A., Osman, M., Reed, K., Rothmuller, M., Schemann, V., Singh A., Sonntag, S., Tummon, F.,  Victor, D., Villafuerte, M., Walawender, J., and Zaroug, M., 2017. Earth System Science Frontiers, An early career perspective.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,  119-1127. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0025.1
  4. Schlegel, R.W., Oliver, E.C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Kruger, A., and Smit, A.J., 2017. Predominant atmospheric and oceanic patterns during coastal marine heatwaves. Frontiers in marine science, 12, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00323.
  5. Gibson, P.B., Pitman, A.J., Lorenz, R., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2017.  The role of circulation and land surface conditions in current and future Australian heatwaves. Journal of Climate, ​30 (24), 9933-9948.
  6. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Gibson, P.B., 2017: Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature. Scientific Reports, 7, www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-12520-2.
  7. Oliver, E. C. J., S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, N. J. Holbrook and N. L. Bindoff (2017), Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heatwaves [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bulletin of the Amerercan Meteorological Society, 98(12), S44–S48, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0093.1.
  8. Angelil, O., D. Stone, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L. Alexander, M. Wehner, H. Shiogama, P. Wolski, A. Ciavarella, N. Christidis, 2017. On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements. Climate Dynamics,​ doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3768-9
  9. Oliver, E.C.J.,  J.A. Benthuysen, N.L. Bindoff, A.J. Hobday, N.J. Holbrook, C.N. Mundy and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2017. The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, 8, doi:10.1038/ncomms16101
  10. Loughran, T., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Pitman, A.J., 2017: No Significant Difference Between Australian Heatwave Impacts of Modoki and Eastern Pacific El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, ​44, 5150-5157, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073231.​
  11. Gibson, P.B., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E., Uotila, P., Pepler, A., and Alexander, L.A., 2017: On the use of self-organizing maps for studying climate extremes.  Journal of Geophysical Research,​ 122, 3891-3903. DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026256
  12. Gibson, P.B., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L.A. and Fischer, E.M, 2016: Comparing Australian heatwaves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 122, 3266-3281, DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025878
  13. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Fischer, E.M., and Angelil, O., 2017: The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends. Environmental Research Letters, ​​http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fe/meta
  14. Loughran, T., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Alexander, L.V., 2017. Understanding  the Spatio-temporal Influence of Climate Variability on Australian Heatwaves.  International Journal of climatology, 37, 4963-3975. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4971, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4971/full
  15. Marotzke, J., C. Jakob, S. Bony, P.A. Dirmeyer, P. O'Gorman, E. Hawkins, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, C. Le Quere, S. Nowicki, K. Paulavets, S.I. Seneviratne, B. Stevens, and M. Tuma, 2017. Climate research must sharpen its view. Nature Climate Change, 7, 89-91.  DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3206
  16. White, C.J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A.W., Klein, R., Lazo, J.K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., Coughlan, E., Ray, A.J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A.P., Eggen, B., Graham., R., Kjellstrom, E., Backer, R., Pegion, K.V., Holbrook, N.J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T.J., Street, R., Remenyi, T.A., Hodgson-Johnson, I. and Buontempo, C., 2017: Applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications, ​24, 315-325, DOI: 10.1002/met.1654
  17. Lewis, S.C., King, A.D., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2017: Defining a new normal for temperature extremes in a warming world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 1139-1151, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0183.1
  18. Sewell T., R. Stephens, D. Dominey-Howes, E, Bruce and S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Natural disaster declarations in New South Wales, Australia between 2004 and 2014. Nature Scientific Reports, 6, 36369, doi:  10.1038/srep36369.
  19. Loridan, T., Coates, L., Argueso, D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and McAneney, J., 2016: The Excess Heat Factor as a metric for heat related fatalities: defining heatwave risk categories. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 31, 31-37,  https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=508734458488231;res=IELHSS.
  20. ​Angelil, O., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Stone, D., Donat, D., Wehner, M.,Shiogama, H., Ciavarella., A, and Christidis, N., 2016.  Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products. Weather and Climate Extremes, 13, 35-43, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.07.001
  21. Argüeso, D., Di Luca, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Evans, J.P., 2016: Mean temperatures more important than variability for future heat waves. Geophysical Research Letters,  DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069408.
  22. Kala, J., M.G. De Kauwe, A.J. Pitman, B.E. Medlyn, Y.-P., Wang, R. Lorenz, and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Are climate models underestimating future heatwave intensity due to their representation for stomatal conductance?  Nature Scientific Reports, 6,  doi:10.1038/srep23418 
  23. Gibson, P.B., P. Utolia, S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L.V. Alexander and A.J. Pitman, 2016: Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2961-y 
  24. King, A., M. Black, S.-K. Min, E. Fischer, D. Mitchell, L. Harrington, and  S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2015GL067448 
  25. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., C.J.White, L.V. Alexander, D. Argüeso, G. Boschat, T. Cowan, J.P. Evans, M. Ekström, E.C.J. Oliver, A. Phatak, and A. Purich, 2016: Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Climatic Change, Australian Natural Hazards Special Issue DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0=
  26. Gibson, P.B., S.E. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E. and J.A. Renwick, 2016: Projected changes in synoptic weather patterns over New Zealand examined through self‐organizing maps. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.4604 
  27. Hobday, A.J., L.V. Alexander, S.E. Perkins, D.A. Smale, S.C. Straub, E.C. Oliver, J. Benthuysen, M.T. Burrows, M.G. Donat, M. Feng, and  N.J.Holbrook, 2016: A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Progress in Oceanography. doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 
  28. Perkins, S.E., D. Argueso and C.J. White, 2015: Understanding the influence of climate variability on Australian heatwaves.  Journal of Geophysical Research, 120, 8144-8164. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023592 
  29. Perkins, S.E. and P.B. Gibson, 2015: Increased risk of the 2014 Australian May heatwave due to anthropogenic activity.  “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (12), S154-S157 DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00074.1 
  30. Perkins, S.E., 2015: A review on the scientific understanding of heatwaves – their measurement, driving mechanisms, and changes at the global scale. Journal of Atmospheric Research, 164, 242-267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.014 
  31. King, A.D., M.G. Donat, E.M. Fischer, E. Hawkins, L.V. Alexander, D.J. Karoly, A. Dittus, S.C. Lewis and S.E. Perkins, 2015: The timing of anthropogenic emergence in climate extremes, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 094015.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015 
  32. Boschat, G., A. Pezza, I. Simmonds, S. Perkins, T. Cowan and A. Purich, 2015: Local and large scale connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia, Climate Dynamics, 44, 1823-1840. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2214-5 
  33. Purich, A., Cowan, T., Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Uotila, P., Pezza, A.,  Boschat, G., & Perkins, S., 2014: Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian Heat Waves: a CMIP5 analysis. Journal of Climate, 27 (20), 7807-7829. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1
  34. Perkins, S.E., S.C. Lewis, A. D. King and L. V. Alexander, 2014: Anthropogenic activity increased risk in Australian heatwave frequency and intensity during 2012-2013, [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9), s34-s37 
  35. Cowan, T., A. Purich, S. Perkins, A. Pezza, G. Boschat and K. Sadler, 2014: More frequent, longer and hotter heat waves for Australia in the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 27, 5851-5871 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1  
  36. Cowan, T., A. Purich, G. Boschat and S. Perkins, 2014: Future projections of Australian heatwave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 27, 134-139 
  37. Moles, A., S. Perkins, S. Laffan, M. Awasthy, M. Tindall, M. Sack, M. Lawren. H. Flores Moreno, A. Pitman, J. Kattge, L. Aarssen, M. Anand, M, Bahn, B. Blonder, J. Cavender-Bares, H. Cornelissen, W. Cornwell, S. Díaz, S., J. Dickie, G. Freschet, J. Griffiths, A. Gutierrez, F. Hemmings, T. Hickler, T. Hitchcock and M. Keighery, 2014: "Which is a better predictor of plant traits: temperature or precipitation?" Journal of Vegetation Science, 25, 1167-1180. DOI: 10.1111/jvs.12190 
  38. Perkins, S.E., A.F. Moise, J.  Katzfey and P. Whetton, 2014: Regional Changes of Climate Extremes over Australia ­ a Comparison of RCM and GCM Simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 3456-3478. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3927 
  39. King, A.D., S.C. Lewis, S.E. Perkins, L.V. Alexander, M.G. Donat, D.J. Karoly, and M.T. Black, 2013: Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-2012 extreme rainfall over South-East Australia. [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9), S6–S9. 
  40. Perkins, S.E. and E.M. Fischer, 2013: The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5793-5797, DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057833
  41. Perkins, S.E. and L.V. Alexander, 2013: On the Measurement of Heat Waves. Journal of Climate, 26, pp. 4500-4517. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1 
  42. Alexander, L.V. and S.E. Perkins, 2013: Debate heating up over changes in climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 041001, 3pp. doi 10.1088/1748-9326 
  43. Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman and S.A. Sisson, 2013: Systematic differences in future 20-year temperature extremes in AR4 model projections over Australia as a function of model skill. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3500  
  44. Perkins, S.E., L.V. Alexander and J.R. Nairn, 2012: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361 
  45. Perkins, S.E., D.B. Irving, J.R. Brown, S.B. Power, A.F. Moise, R.A. Colman and I. Smith, 2012: CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill. Climate Research, 51, 35-58 
  46. Beaumont, L.J., A. Pitman, S. Perkins, N.E. Zimmerman, N. G. Yoccoz, 2011: Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 108, 2306-2311.  doi: 10.1073/pnas.1007217108  
  47. Irving, D.B., S.E. Perkins, J.R. Brown, A. Sen Gupta, A.F. Moise, B.F. Murphy, L.C. Muir, R.A. Colman, S.B. Power, F.P Delage and J.N. Brown, 2011:  Evaluating global climate models for climate change projections in the Pacific island region. Climate Research, 49, 169-187. doi: 10.3354/cr01028
  48. Perkins, S.E., 2011:  Biases and model agreement in projections of climate extremes over the tropical Pacific. Earth Interactions, 15, 1-36. doi: 10.1175/2011EI395.1
  49. Perkins, S. E. and A.J. Pitman, 2009: Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia? Climatic Change, 93, 527-558 
  50. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman and S. A. Sisson, 2009: Smaller projected increases in 20-year temperature returns over Australia in skill-selected climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06710, doi:10.1029/2009GL037293 
  51. Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2009: Comparison of daily 2m and 1000 hPa maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and latent heat flux in the global re-analysis. Journal of Climate, 22, 4667-4681
  52. Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2008: Regional projections of future seasonal and annual changes in rainfall and temperature over Australia based on skill-selected AR4 models. Earth Interactions, 12, 50pp
  53. Maxino, C.C, B..J McAvaney, A.J.Pitman and S.E. Perkins, 2008: Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray-Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, International Journal of Climatology, 28, 1097-1112 
  54. Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook and J. McAneney, 2007: Evaluation of the AR4 climate models’ simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. Journal of Climate, 20, 4356-4756 
  55. Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook and J. McAneney, 2007: Ability of global climate models at a regional scale over Australia. Journal of Global Environmental Issues,  Vol. 7, No.4  pp. 275 - 287​ 
  56. Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2007: Reducing uncertainty in selecting climate models for hydrological impact assessments, in Boegh, E., Kunstmann, H., Wagener, T., Hall, A., Bastidas, L., Franks, S., Gupta,  H., Rosbjerg, D. And Schaake, J., Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resource management, IAHS Publication 313, IAHS Press.

Submitted publications

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Pitman, A.J., 2018. Extreme events in the context of climate change. Public Health Research & Practice, ​submitted.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E.,  King, A.D., Cougnon, E.A., Grose, M.R., Oliver, E.C.J., Holbrook, N.J., Lewis, S.C., and Pourasghar, F., 2018. The 2017/2018 Tasman Sea Marine Heatwave could not have occurred without human influence. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, submitted.

Lewis, S.C., King, A.D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Kemp, L., and Althor, G., 2018. Attributing responsibility for future climate extremes to emitters' Paris-era decisions. Nature Climate Change, submitted.

Lewis, S.C., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2018. Extreme events now impossible without climate change. Nature Climate Change, submitted


Reports and book chapters

M.G.Donat, R.J.H.Dunn and S.E.Perkins-Kirkpatrick., 2016, [Global climate] Temperature extreme indices [in “State of the Climate in 2015”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , 97, (8), S19–S20

Lewis, S. C, D. J. Karoly, A. D. King, S. E. Perkins, and M. G. Donat (accepted, 09/01/2016), Mechanisms explaining recent changes in Australia’s climate extremes. Climate Extremes: Patterns, Trends, and Mechanisms, American Geophysical Union.

Brown, J.R.; Colman, R.A.; Katzfey , J.; Irving, D.B.; Perkins, S.E.; Sen Gupta, A., 2011: Climate model reliability. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].

Hennessy, K.; Irving, D.B.; Perkins, S.E.; Murphy, B.F.; Sen Gupta, A.; Church, J.; Tilbrook, B., 2011: Projections based on Global Climate Models. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].

Katzfey, J.; Kokic, P.; Perkins, S.E.; Abbs, D, 2011: Climate Change Projections Based on downscaling. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].
     
Rischbieth J, et al., 2011: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 2: Country Reports).

Steffen, W. L. Hughes and S. Perkins, 2014: Heatwaves - Longer, Hotter, More Often. Published by the Climate Council.