ORCID NUMBER orcid.org/0000-0001-9443-4915
Peer reviewed publications
- Angelil, O., D. Stone, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L. Alexander, M. Wehner, H. Shiogama, P. Wolski, A. Ciavarella, N. Christidis, 2016. On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements. Climate Dynamics, accepted 11/6/2017.
- Oliver, E.C.J., J.A. Benthuysen, N.L. Bindoff, A.J. Hobday, N.J. Holbrook, C.N. Mundy and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2017. The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave. Nature Communications, accepted 30/5/17.
- Loughran, T., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Pitman, A.J., 2017: No Significant Difference Between Australian Heatwave Impacts of Modoki and Eastern Pacific El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted 19/5/2017.
- Gibson, P.B., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E., Uotila, P., Pepler, A., and Alexander, L.A., 2016: On the use of self-organizing maps for studying climate extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research, accepted 30/3/2017
- Gibson, P.B., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E., Alexander, L.A. and Fischer, E.M, 2016: Comparing Australian heatwaves in the CMIP5 models through cluster analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 10.1002/2016JD025878, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025878/full.
- Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Fischer, E.M., and Angelil, O., 2017: The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends. Environmental Research Letters, http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa63fe/meta
- Marotzke, J., C. Jakob, S. Bony, P.A. Dirmeyer, P. O'Gorman, E. Hawkins, S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, C. Le Quere, S. Nowicki, K. Paulavets, S.I. Seneviratne, B. Stevens, and M. Tuma, 2017. Climate research must sharpen its view. Nature Climate Change, 7, 89-91. http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n2/full/nclimate3206.html.
- White, C.J., Carlsen, H., Robertson, A.W., Klein, R., Lazo, J.K., Kumar, A., Vitart, F., Coughlan, E., Ray, A.J., Murray, V., Bharwani, S., MacLeod, D., James, R., Fleming, L., Morse, A.P., Eggen, B., Graham., R., Kjellstrom, E., Backer, R., Pegion, K.V., Holbrook, N.J., McEvoy, D., Depledge, M., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Brown, T.J., Street, R., Remenyi, T.A., Hodgson-Johnson, I. and Buontempo, C., 2016: Applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications, accepted 20/1/2017.
- Loughran, T., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Alexander, L.V., 2016. Understanding the Spatio-temporal Influence of Climate Variability on Australian Heatwaves. International Journal of climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4971, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4971/full
- Lewis, S.C., King, A.D., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2016: Defining a new normal for temperature extremes in a warming world. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0183.1
- Sewell T., R. Stephens, D. Dominey-Howes, E, Bruce and S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Natural disaster declarations in New South Wales, Australia between 2004 and 2014. Nature Scientific Reports, 6, 36369, doi: 10.1038/srep36369.
- Loridan, T., Coates, L., Argueso, D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and McAneney, J., 2016: The Excess Heat Factor as a metric for heat related fatalities: defining heatwave risk categories. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 31, 31-37, https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=508734458488231;res=IELHSS.
- Angelil, O., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Alexander, L.V., Stone, D., Donat, D., Wehner, M.,Shiogama, H., Ciavarella., A, and Christidis, N., 2016. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products. Weather and Climate Extremes, 13, 35-43, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2016.07.001
- Argüeso, D., Di Luca, A., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Evans, J.P., 2016: Mean temperatures more important than variability for future heat waves. Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069408.
- Kala, J., M.G. De Kauwe, A.J. Pitman, B.E. Medlyn, Y.-P., Wang, R. Lorenz, and S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Are climate models underestimating future heatwave intensity due to their representation for stomatal conductance? Nature Scientific Reports, 6, doi:10.1038/srep23418
- Gibson, P.B., P. Utolia, S.E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, L.V. Alexander and A.J. Pitman, 2016: Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2961-y
- King, A., M. Black, S.-K. Min, E. Fischer, D. Mitchell, L. Harrington, and S. Perkins-Kirkpatrick, 2016: Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2015GL067448
- Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., C.J.White, L.V. Alexander, D. Argüeso, G. Boschat, T. Cowan, J.P. Evans, M. Ekström, E.C.J. Oliver, A. Phatak, and A. Purich, 2016: Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves. Climatic Change, Australian Natural Hazards Special Issue DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0=
- Gibson, P.B., S.E. Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, S. E. and J.A. Renwick, 2016: Projected changes in synoptic weather patterns over New Zealand examined through self‐organizing maps. International Journal of Climatology. doi: 10.1002/joc.4604
- Hobday, A.J., L.V. Alexander, S.E. Perkins, D.A. Smale, S.C. Straub, E.C. Oliver, J. Benthuysen, M.T. Burrows, M.G. Donat, M. Feng, and N.J.Holbrook, 2016: A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves. Progress in Oceanography. doi: 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014
- Perkins, S.E., D. Argueso and C.J. White, 2015: Understanding the influence of climate variability on Australian heatwaves. Journal of Geophysical Research, 120, 8144-8164. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023592
- Perkins, S.E. and P.B. Gibson, 2015: Increased risk of the 2014 Australian May heatwave due to anthropogenic activity. “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96 (12), S154-S157 DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00074.1
- Perkins, S.E., 2015: A review on the scientific understanding of heatwaves – their measurement, driving mechanisms, and changes at the global scale. Journal of Atmospheric Research, 164, 242-267. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.014
- King, A.D., M.G. Donat, E.M. Fischer, E. Hawkins, L.V. Alexander, D.J. Karoly, A. Dittus, S.C. Lewis and S.E. Perkins, 2015: The timing of anthropogenic emergence in climate extremes, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 094015. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015
- Boschat, G., A. Pezza, I. Simmonds, S. Perkins, T. Cowan and A. Purich, 2015: Local and large scale connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia, Climate Dynamics, 44, 1823-1840. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2214-5
- Purich, A., Cowan, T., Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Uotila, P., Pezza, A., Boschat, G., & Perkins, S., 2014: Atmospheric and Oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian Heat Waves: a CMIP5 analysis. Journal of Climate, 27 (20), 7807-7829. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1
- Perkins, S.E., S.C. Lewis, A. D. King and L. V. Alexander, 2014: Anthropogenic activity increased risk in Australian heatwave frequency and intensity during 2012-2013, [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9), s34-s37
- Cowan, T., A. Purich, S. Perkins, A. Pezza, G. Boschat and K. Sadler, 2014: More frequent, longer and hotter heat waves for Australia in the 21st century. Journal of Climate, 27, 5851-5871 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1
- Cowan, T., A. Purich, G. Boschat and S. Perkins, 2014: Future projections of Australian heatwave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 27, 134-139
- Moles, A., S. Perkins, S. Laffan, M. Awasthy, M. Tindall, M. Sack, M. Lawren. H. Flores Moreno, A. Pitman, J. Kattge, L. Aarssen, M. Anand, M, Bahn, B. Blonder, J. Cavender-Bares, H. Cornelissen, W. Cornwell, S. Díaz, S., J. Dickie, G. Freschet, J. Griffiths, A. Gutierrez, F. Hemmings, T. Hickler, T. Hitchcock and M. Keighery, 2014: "Which is a better predictor of plant traits: temperature or precipitation?" Journal of Vegetation Science, 25, 1167-1180. DOI: 10.1111/jvs.12190
- Perkins, S.E., A.F. Moise, J. Katzfey and P. Whetton, 2014: Regional Changes of Climate Extremes over Australia a Comparison of RCM and GCM Simulations. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 3456-3478. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3927
- King, A.D., S.C. Lewis, S.E. Perkins, L.V. Alexander, M.G. Donat, D.J. Karoly, and M.T. Black, 2013: Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-2012 extreme rainfall over South-East Australia. [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective”] Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94 (9), S6–S9.
- Perkins, S.E. and E.M. Fischer, 2013: The usefulness of different realizations for the model evaluation of regional trends in heatwaves. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5793-5797, DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057833
- Perkins, S.E. and L.V. Alexander, 2013: On the Measurement of Heat Waves. Journal of Climate, 26, pp. 4500-4517. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1
- Alexander, L.V. and S.E. Perkins, 2013: Debate heating up over changes in climate variability. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 041001, 3pp. doi 10.1088/1748-9326
- Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman and S.A. Sisson, 2013: Systematic differences in future 20-year temperature extremes in AR4 model projections over Australia as a function of model skill. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3500
- Perkins, S.E., L.V. Alexander and J.R. Nairn, 2012: Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361
- Perkins, S.E., D.B. Irving, J.R. Brown, S.B. Power, A.F. Moise, R.A. Colman and I. Smith, 2012: CMIP3 ensemble climate projections over the western tropical Pacific based on model skill. Climate Research, 51, 35-58
- Beaumont, L.J., A. Pitman, S. Perkins, N.E. Zimmerman, N. G. Yoccoz, 2011: Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, 108, 2306-2311. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1007217108
- Irving, D.B., S.E. Perkins, J.R. Brown, A. Sen Gupta, A.F. Moise, B.F. Murphy, L.C. Muir, R.A. Colman, S.B. Power, F.P Delage and J.N. Brown, 2011: Evaluating global climate models for climate change projections in the Pacific island region. Climate Research, 49, 169-187. doi: 10.3354/cr01028
- Perkins, S.E., 2011: Biases and model agreement in projections of climate extremes over the tropical Pacific. Earth Interactions, 15, 1-36. doi: 10.1175/2011EI395.1
- Perkins, S. E. and A.J. Pitman, 2009: Do weak AR4 models bias projections of future climate changes over Australia? Climatic Change, 93, 527-558
- Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman and S. A. Sisson, 2009: Smaller projected increases in 20-year temperature returns over Australia in skill-selected climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06710, doi:10.1029/2009GL037293
- Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2009: Comparison of daily 2m and 1000 hPa maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and latent heat flux in the global re-analysis. Journal of Climate, 22, 4667-4681
- Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2008: Regional projections of future seasonal and annual changes in rainfall and temperature over Australia based on skill-selected AR4 models. Earth Interactions, 12, 50pp
- Maxino, C.C, B..J McAvaney, A.J.Pitman and S.E. Perkins, 2008: Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray-Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, International Journal of Climatology, 28, 1097-1112
- Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook and J. McAneney, 2007: Evaluation of the AR4 climate models’ simulated daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Australia using probability density functions. Journal of Climate, 20, 4356-4756
- Perkins, S.E., A.J. Pitman, N.J. Holbrook and J. McAneney, 2007: Ability of global climate models at a regional scale over Australia. Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Vol. 7, No.4 pp. 275 - 287
- Pitman, A.J. and S.E. Perkins, 2007: Reducing uncertainty in selecting climate models for hydrological impact assessments, in Boegh, E., Kunstmann, H., Wagener, T., Hall, A., Bastidas, L., Franks, S., Gupta, H., Rosbjerg, D. And Schaake, J., Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty for sustainable water resource management, IAHS Publication 313, IAHS Press.
Oliver, E.C.J., Donat, M.G., Burrows, M.T., Moore, P.J., Smale, D.A., Alexander, L.V., Benthuysen, J.A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Scannell, H.A., Straub, S.C, and Wernberg, T., 2017. Ocean Warming brings longer and more frequent marine heatwaves. Nature Communications, submitted.
Gibson, P.B., Pitman, A.J., Lorenz, R., and Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., 2017. The role of circulation and land surface conditions in current and future Australian heatwaves. Journal of Climate, in review.
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., and Gibson, P.B., 2017: Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature. Scientific Reports, submitted.
Oliver, E.C.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Holbrook, N.J. and Bindoff, N.L., 2017: Anthropogenic and natural influences on record 2016 marine heatwaves. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective, submitted.
Harris, R.M.B, Beaumont, L.J., Vance, T., Tozer,C., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Mitchell, P.J., Andrew, N.R., Nicotra, A.B., Fletcher, M.-S., Keatley, M.R., Chambers, L.E., Wernberg, T., McGregor, S., Woodward, C.A., Hutley, L.B., Williamson, G., Duke, N.C. and Bowman D.M.J.S, 2017: The certainty of unpredictability: Climate change, extreme events and biodiversity impacts. Nature Climate Change, submitted.
Oliver, E.C.J., Donat, M.G., Burrows, M.T., Moore, P.J., Smale, D.A., Alexander, L.V., Benthuysen J.A., Feng, M., Sen Gupta, A., Hobday, A.J., Holbrook, N.J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Scannell, H.A., Straub, S.C., and Wernberg, T., 2016: Ocean warming brings longer and more frequent heatwaves. Nature Climate Change, submitted.
Reports and book chapters
M.G.Donat, R.J.H.Dunn and S.E.Perkins-Kirkpatrick., 2016, [Global climate] Temperature extreme indices [in “State of the Climate in 2015”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc , 97, (8), S19–S20
Lewis, S. C, D. J. Karoly, A. D. King, S. E. Perkins, and M. G. Donat (accepted, 09/01/2016), Mechanisms explaining recent changes in Australia’s climate extremes. Climate Extremes: Patterns, Trends, and Mechanisms, American Geophysical Union.
Brown, J.R.; Colman, R.A.; Katzfey , J.; Irving, D.B.; Perkins, S.E.; Sen Gupta, A., 2011: Climate model reliability. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].
Hennessy, K.; Irving, D.B.; Perkins, S.E.; Murphy, B.F.; Sen Gupta, A.; Church, J.; Tilbrook, B., 2011: Projections based on Global Climate Models. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].
Katzfey, J.; Kokic, P.; Perkins, S.E.; Abbs, D, 2011: Climate Change Projections Based on downscaling. In: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 1: Regional Climate Change) [Cambers, G.; Hennessy, K.; Power, S.B. (eds.)].
Rischbieth J, et al., 2011: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research (Volume 2: Country Reports).
Steffen, W. L. Hughes and S. Perkins, 2014: Heatwaves - Longer, Hotter, More Often. Published by the Climate Council.